As the 2027 General Election beckon, already this early the political space has started witnessing assembling of contest alliances.

The highest stakes are in President William Ruto's reelection where he has been disbanding and reconstituting his Cabinet in a clear version that betrays his fixation with a second term.

Around him appears to be former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

The president's immediate notable threat is from the Deputy President he sponsored his impeachment in October 2024, Rigathi Gachagua, who is already up and about crafting an anti-Ruto contest formation.

In so doing, Mr Gachagua appears to be working with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-Kenya boss Eugene Wamalwa who in town has come with his Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Another alliance is coming up in the shape of former President Uhuru Kenyatta also assembling his 2027 formation that oscillate around his corner Interior CS, Dr Fred Matiang'i.

In the shadows are political orphans threatened by the emerging alliances and mostly voiced by the likes of Nairobi Senator Mr Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Mr Babu Owino.

"Any other time you see this happen, don't tell us that the best interests of the country are at play. What we have are individual interests coming together and scheming on how the people will give them political power," says Political commentator Prof Peter Kagwanja.

Mr Kagwanja says "if at all these politicians had the interests of the country and people at heart, they would all be united to first demand service delivery for the 2022-2027 governance contract".

He said "we have a government in place whose duty is to govern and improve the general fortunes of the people and the country, but what we have is different".

In his pursuit of a second term, the President's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party has since merged with Mr Mudavadi's Amani National Congress (ANC), hinting that the two might found the 2027 reelection contest ticket.

Former Gatanga MP Mr Nduati Ngugi reveals that the alliances are already raging beneath the surface.

"I can confess to you that we in Jubilee Party have been targets of serious courtship by the government and Mr Gachagua wings while our party leader Mr Kenyatta has been sending mixing signals about where we should go," Mr Ngugi said.

He added that in all those courtships, there is nothing like development agenda being discussed but only how to bang up numbers for winning 2027.

"The government through Deputy President Kithure Kindiki wants us in Jubilee to help him marshall numbers in Mt Kenya region so that he can retain his relevance for 2027. Mr Gachagua wants us to go to his camp so as to make him a serious force..." Mr Ngugi said.

Mr Ngugi added that "inhouse we have Mr Kenyatta to guide us, but so far we have no definite directive to adhere to, fuelling speculations that only serve to heighten anxieties".

He says the ideal position would be where "all those who want to use the Jubilee influence first mobilise us for securing development for our people and make people more receptive in happiness for easy soliciting of votes".

He regretted that "with three(3) years still remaining, we already have both the government and opposition in the campaign mode where all are sloganeering and trading competition banters as Wanjiku (common mwananchi) continues to stand stuck in a web of challenges".

In the Azimio wing that is led by Mr Odinga, anxiety is live that should he get ejected the African Union Commission (AUC) chair later this month (February 2025), his political bedroom that is mainly in Nyanza and Western regions automatically goes to President Ruto.

But Mr Sifuna and Mr Owino insist that Mr Odinga should not do that, rather, should leave the local scene actors free to chart their independent 2027 course.
This has seen Environment CS Aden Duale cry out that "there are a crop of politicians in this country who want Mr Odinga to fail in clinching the AUC seat so as to continue using him as a political guinea pig".

He added that "there are those politicians in this country who know Mr Odinga's exit from local politics means death of their political careers hence going to irresponsible lows of wishing him to fail".

But political scientist Mr Gasper Odhiambo laughs it off saying "a country that treats government as a zero rated hotel should be the last to complain of idiotically crafted alliances only meant to win state power".
He said "a country with hard lessons of tribal oathing ceremonies to consolidate tribal loyalty to ejections, attempted coups, tribal clashes, post-election violence, impeachment and political parties poaching need to have since learnt its lesson".

Mr Odhiambo says "we have unfortunately left it to politicians to use us like pool table balls where we are hit into tribal holes and on the table remains the black ball as the president who goes right ahead to be hit around by the white ball as interests to dictate which of the numerous holes he will serve".

He said "that is why the president will court women voters by promising them gender equity, but goes right ahead to align with male politicians for the current political challenge he has demands more muscle".

He taunts: "Until you Kenyans wake up one day and refuse politics of being grouped into tribe, gender, religion...age groups and other archaic lines...you will forever be victims of loose coalitions crafted for winning power in different political parties every five(5) years".

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma in a recent TV interview captured it aptly when he said that "we are in government and we are enjoying its warmth... if those who crafted this government (Mt Kenya) feel they don't want it we can as well run away with it".

He said cooperating with the Ruto administration should be structured in a way that it becomes a more angled for the current task of stabilising the country and approaching upcoming contest in a united version".

Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) don Mr Charles Mwangi says "we are in a sad state of affairs where we win an election so as to serve politics for the next five(5) years".

He said that "Ruto has in the 12 successive years he has been in power both as Deputy President and now President, been crafting upcoming contest alliances".

He said that "he started by courting Mt Kenya to succeed Mr Kenyatta in 2022, went ahead to dump Mr Gachagua who helped him win the presidency and is currently using politicians like William Kabogo, Mutahi Kagwe and Lee Kinyanjui as allies to join more from Western, Nyanza and Coast to win the 2027 duel".

Mr Mwangi added that Mr Gachagua is on the other hand courting other regions to kick out President Ruto from power hence founding the credible theory that "winning power in Kenya is about vendetta, revenge and peaceful coups guided by no ideological reasoning".

Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa told us that "it is we the leaders who fail Kenyans by not helping them angle these alliances correctly".

He said that "when we ourselves hit at each other negatively on public media we group our voters into emotional blocks that use the same emotions to demand alliances that best serve their bitterness".

He said "if we were to do it right, we can even reach a point and demand that Mr Gachagua for instance comes back on board to help us unite this country and serve it better".

But he said "the problem again is that he was impeached for being all the negative things that our democracy does not need, but he is out there crafting a contest formation to come back into power".

Bunge la Mwananchi member Mr Calvine Odhiambo told AVDelta News on January 3, 2025, that "we cannot continue looking up on politicians to set the pace for us".

"Owing to our poor approach to what power is, we can watch with disinterest as government abducts and murders dissenters, unleashes criminal gangs in communities deemed rebellious and impeaches without proper public participation those deemed to be too corrosive to immediate and future interests," Mr Odhiambo said.

He said such considerations are the ones that cannot help the country shop for a good presidential candidate from the smaller tribes.

"You will hear people like Dr Matiang'i and Busia senator Mr Okiya Omtatah get knocked off contest maths on grounds that they have no solid block vote to bargain to be flag bearers...You will see our president for 2027-2032 being determined by the direct acts of Ruto, Odinga, Kenyatta and Gachagua," he said