Inside Raila Odinga’s strategy: How ODM’s activist and political wings shape Kenya’s future
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is in the eye of a deepening strategic divide between what insiders describe as two distinct political wings--a combative activist faction and a diplomatic political faction--both linked to the legacy of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Speaking in an interview on Citizen TV, lawyer Paul Mwangi, who was close to Raila, said the party’s current tensions reflect a long‑standing duality in Raila’s own political style.
“Raila never allowed himself to be predictable. He always kept all options alive,” Mr Mwangi said, describing Raila’s blend of grassroots pressure and high‑stakes negotiation as core to his influence.
Two sides of one leader
Mr Mwangi explained that Raila operated with two complementary yet distinct approaches: (bullets)
*Diplomatic political wing:* Focused on negotiation, coalitions and strategic alliances, exemplified by Raila’s 2018 “handshake” with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This faction engaged in diplomacy and formal political interaction.
*Militant wing:* A more confrontational faction that applied pressure outside formal chambers — especially in moments of intense political struggle, such as post‑election protests or mass mobilisation.
According to Mr Mwangi, the militant wing played a strong role in shaping parts of Raila’s political identity, particularly in times of national contestation.
“This militant side is unlikely to cross back to the diplomatic wing,” Mr Mwangi said, noting that the two approaches often operated on different assumptions and rhythms.
Past patterns inform the present
Raila’s career offers several historical markers for this duality: (bullets)
In the aftermath of the 2007 elections, ODM was deeply fractured, and negotiations around power‑sharing required both diplomatic intermediaries and pressure politics on the ground.
During the 2017 election cycle and the subsequent push for the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), the party’s diplomatic faction drove the dialogue with government, while hard‑line voices pushed back against perceived concessions.
The 2018 handshake itself was the diplomatic wing’s most visible moment, but it did not fully integrate the militant elements of the movement, which continued to press separate agendas.
What this means for 2027
With Raila’s passing in October 2025, ODM is now navigating a leadership and strategic pivot.
The lack of a unifying central figure has intensified tensions between the two wings as the party positions itself ahead of the 2027 general election.
Mr Mwangi said that Raila’s unpredictable strategic posture was part of what made him effective: he would rarely commit publicly to a specific future course, keeping both options open until the moment of decision.
“In today’s context, outside his leadership, these wings are more visible as separate actors,” Mr Mwangi said.
A party divided — and testing loyalty
The divide has surfaced in recent criticisms about how ODM’s leadership functions were convened and who represents the party’s direction.
The firebrand and abrasive faction has argued for more assertive opposition action, while those aligned with the diplomatic wing stress negotiation, coalition building, and institutional engagement.
Mr Mwangi said that, for many in the abrasive faction, compromise feels like betrayal--a sentiment that has historical roots in periods where pressure politics felt overridden by negotiation.
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