Survey shows Ruto’s government under pressure as Kenyans struggle with rising costs

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The government has less than 48 months to improve the lives of Kenyans, a major campaign pledge during the 2022 general election.

President William Ruto came to power on the promise of uplifting downtrodden Kenyans — “Hustlers” — through the Bottom-Up Economic Model.

“Our plan is to lift ordinary Kenyans, from the mama mboga to the bodaboda rider, and build the economy from the bottom up,” the Kenya Kwanza manifesto declared.

But three years into office, new research by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) paints a gloomy picture of unmet expectations.

The findings, released in Nairobi on Thursday, show that 72 per cent of Kenyans believe their living conditions have worsened since last year, citing high food and fuel prices as their greatest challenge. 

Only 9 per cent said their situation has improved. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data supports this sentiment. 

Inflation averaged 6.8 per cent in the last year, with food inflation peaking at over 8 per cent. Prices of staples such as maize flour, sugar and cooking oil have doubled in some areas, pushing many households to reduce meals or skip them altogether.

Unemployment also remains high, with the KNBS reporting that nearly 13 per cent of the labour force is jobless. 

Youth and women are the most affected, with many turning to casual work or struggling in the informal sector.

Meanwhile, 38 per cent of households surveyed by KNBS in July said they had withdrawn children from school or delayed fees payments due to financial strain. 

Rural areas recorded the sharpest rise in educational disruption.

TIFA Research Director Dr Tom Wolf said the results reflect a widening disconnect between political leaders and ordinary citizens.

“What Kenyans are telling us is very clear. They are hurting from the daily struggles of putting food on the table, paying school fees, and coping with joblessness. They are not interested in elite bargains that do not directly touch their lives,” he told reporters during the launch.

The survey further shows that trust in government is waning. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they believe the administration will deliver on its promises, while 55 per cent said they have little or no trust.

A majority of Kenyans have also rejected the broad-based government arrangement born out of the 10-point agenda signed by President Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga. The poll found that 64 per cent are opposed to the BBG, while only 24 per cent support it and 12 per cent remain undecided.

The BBG was unveiled in March to end months of political hostility and promised reforms in the economy, elections and social welfare. 

But the TIFA survey suggests citizens see it as a political accommodation that has failed to ease their hardships.

The report, titled Kenyans’ Economic Conditions and Several Public Policy Governance Issues: Three Years of Kenya Kwanza – Where Do Kenyans Stand?, concludes that citizens remain deeply disillusioned despite pledges of affordable food, lower fuel prices and youth jobs.

As Dr Wolf noted, “citizens are speaking louder than politicians think.”