Why Ruto faction fear Gachagua as 'sword of Damocles' in 2027 gameplan

The soaring popularity that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is currently enjoying in Mt Kenya region might end up consuming him beyond 2027, pundits warn, unless luck helps him, or he comes up with a solid strategy.

On Friday while on interview with Citizen TV, DP Gachagua claimed that he has been blocked from accessing President William Ruto's diary because him and his strategists were removed from key communications group.

This, Mr Gachagua said, was to blame for what happened in Nyeri on Sunday when he was a no-show at Ruto church function.

Gachagua was attending Mass in Kirinyaga County.

In the ongoing tussle for the political soul of the Mountain between his loyalists and those of President Ruto, the second in command is perceived to be enjoying a huge edge.

"But what is not yet definable is whether that popularity is limited to helping him withstand the president's camp onslaught or it extends to being the area choice even beyond 2027," says Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) don Mr Charles Mwangi.

Mr Gachagua and his loyalists have come out as harbouring fears of losing the second in command position threatened by scheme of impeachment.

He says the raging rivalry "that the president appears to silently be supporting might end up fattening Gachagua in readiness for destruction and in the process cripple the president's chance in the Mountain hence presenting the DP with a zero sum game".

Again, matters are not helped by Mr Gachagua's fluid projections about options open for him, only demanding that he be respected, but defying what the president's camp want of him.

While Mr Gachagua sometimes comes out crying that he is being persecuted, he nevertheless confuses his sympathisers by insisting that he will not move out of the persecution den and will support the President to succeed.

This is despite the fact that he is being shown open contempt to a point where the president's men openly say it was a 2022's mistake unrepeatable in 2027 to have him as the running mate to Dr Ruto reelection bid should it be one hard to impeach him earliest possible.

The demands so far placed Gachagua way is that he ceases his Mt Kenya unity project that is said to be tribal angled, he abandons calls for the enactment of one-man-one-shilling formula and in his ground incursions, cease referring to his opponents as traitors and sellouts.

Further, his opposition led by the ruling United Democratic Alliance UDA interim chairman Mr Hassan Omar and East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Kanini Kega want him to cease packaging himself as if he is a co-president and instead submit himself fully including in Mt Kenya to president Ruto.

But Gachagua has hit out saying he is uniting the Mountain so as to keep it relevant in the political discourse "and after we are whole, join others for national cohesion".

But in the same breath Mr Gachagua has suggested that he is seeking to counter the president's formation of broad-based government by assembling his own broad-based friendship with other communities for future common goals.

What is being said by President's loyalists is that DP Gachagua does not clearly indicate commitment to president's reelection in 2027.

Mr Gachagua is popular for saying "I'm not too clever neither too stupid to extent of not knowing a thing or two and when the most opportune time shall come, I will give a voice to guide our people".

This kind of cryptic message from Mr Gachagua is said to give the president and his team sword of Damocles fearing that he might run away with the vote rich Mountain to either pawn it or ride in it to oppose his boss.

Mr Mwangi said "it is not debatable as to which camp has the grassroots since Gachagua is currently like a gospel...some sort of a faith in the region and the more president's men batter him, the more he gains, the more his boss loses".

This was imminent on September 18, 2024, when an attempt by Ruto loyalists to mobilise Mt Kenya MCAs to abandon Gachagua and embrace Interior CS Kithure Kindiki as their link to the president failed.

Of the more than 500 MCAs in Mt Kenya region, half refused to honour invitation into Murang'a hotel to endorse the move while the other half that showed up split down the middle, presenting a case of DP Gachagua commanding at least 75 percent of the ward representatives.

A region that gave President Ruto 87 percent of its votes and 47 percent of his authority, Mr Mwangi says "it is a voting block that the president desperately needs for his reelection strategy but now in disarray".

Mr Ichung'wah on Tuesday told Spice FM that “Gachagua popularity is limited to the majority leaders in Mt Kenya remaining quiet on the real issues leading to his isolation”.

"If all were to open up on why he is being fought, no voter would dare get closer him even shake his hand using a pole," Mr Ichung'wah claimed.

Mr Ichung'wah who together with President's economic advisor Mr Moses Kuria, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri and Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi have shaped out to be Mr Gachagua's ardent batterers, vowing to clip his wings in the mountain.

But political analyst Herman Manyora doubts whether they currently have any formula of cutting Gachagua to size, opining that "they should dare impeach him instead of fighting in vain a man still secured by the constitution".

Prof Manyora said "it is openly clear even to strangers that Gachagua has the Mt Kenya ground despite President's loyalists attempting to create another centre around elected leaders and in the cabinet where they have since endorsed interior Kindiki as their link to the president".

Prof Manyora said Mr Gachagua is currently most likely controlling more than 87 percent of the Mountain and with former President Uhuru Kenyatta's continued silence working in favour of the former Mathira MP now second in command.

"But how does Mr Gachagua intend to utilize that ground edge? What is his gameplan given that the President, the Cabinet and most Mt Kenya leaders appear to have little compassion about him?" posed Prof Manyora.

Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni on Tuesday told us that "Mr Gachagua's problem is pretending to be rebelling for a non-existent cause".

"Those of us in the Jubilee Party under guidance of Mr Kenyatta are resolute that we do not intend to at any moment support President Ruto's reelection in 2027 such that, it is either Mr Gachagua supports that position or we also throw him under the bus," Mr Kioni said.

Mr Kioni said "that indecisiveness that Gachagua exhibits will do him no good beyond 2027 since even as of now he is having the ground because we as Kenyatta loyalists are not fighting him".

Mr Kioni added that "if he is not going to join us in demanding a 2027 Mt Kenya political contest's party, get an ideal Ruto alternative to support and return this country to its desired cause, then Gachagua is pursuing defeatist cause and it doesn't matter how high he will soar since beyond 2027 he will come tumbling down unless he guides Mt Kenya to make the right decision".

Interestingly, even those regionalists like Former Kiambu governor Mr Ferdinand Waititu and former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri who today defend Mr Gachagua at every opportune moment, have not endorsed him for the presidency.

While Mr Waititu is currently rooting for Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Ngunjiri says that is a decision that can wait.

While Laikipia East MP--Kiunjuri--on Tuesday told us that Mr Gachagua is only popular for politicking and will be countered through economic emancipation programmes by the president's men, he nevertheless said "beyond 2027 is in the hands of God".

Mr Kiunjuri warned the DP that "this blackmail plot you so mischievously advance against the president might end up being your political fortunes' consummate fire and make you lose everything in pursuit of everything".

Political analyst Gasper Odhiambo says  "it is evident that Gachagua is complicating his boss in the Mountain".

Mr Odhiambo said "the nature of our politics is that every region has its owners and Gachagua coming out as the clear gatekeeper in Mt Kenya region might be unsettling the president".

He said "the president certainly does not need this noise in Mt Kenya, the country does not need it and of course it is bad for the economy....but in Mt Kenya the president has no political voice as long as he is confronting Gachagua".

He said "the president cannot dare rebuke the Ichung'wah wing since it is brandishing parliamentary numbers as scarecrow while the Deputy President is countering by brandishing area voting muscle as his forte hence bringing out a picture of two hunters seeking to game Mt Kenya, but don't know for what appetite".

Mr Odhiambo said "the president rules through elected leaders and gets elected through voters hence why Mt Kenya presents himself with a delicate situation that gives him a major headache ahead of 2027".

On Friday, Gachagua on his tour to Nairobi's downtown, maintained that he cannot be cowed by impeachment threats.