Fred Matiang’i leads in latest national opinion poll ahead of 2027 race

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Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has emerged as the most preferred presidential candidate in the latest National Opinion Poll conducted by Research 8020 Limited.

According to the company's Research Director Anthony Ndirangu, the survey sought to measure the mood of Kenyans on leadership, governance and the direction the country is taking ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The research was conducted in September and October 2025 through computer-assisted telephone interviews involving 3,430 respondents aged 18 years and above, with a margin of error of ±1.67 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

“Opinion polls are a scientific, non-biased way of measuring the public’s views on topics that directly touch on them,” Mr Ndirangu said, during a briefing at Sarova Stanley Hotel in Nairobi on Friday.

He noted that surveys such as this one help “provide a systematic way of gauging public sentiment, offering insights that can shape policy and inform governance.”

The findings show that 24 percent of Kenyans would vote for Dr Matiang’i if elections were held today. President William Ruto follows with 21 percent, while Kalonzo Musyoka ranks third at 11 percent.

Other leaders named in the poll include Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua with 6 percent, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino with 5pc, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta with 3pc, while 7pc of respondents said they were undecided.

The report shows that 61 percent of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 19 percent say it is on the right path, while 20 percent feel it is neither right nor wrong.

“Opinion polls offer a means of measuring and understanding the collective voice of society, ultimately contributing to more responsive and effective governance,” Mr Ndirangu said.

Economic and social concerns dominate the national agenda, with 82 percent citing the high cost of living, 73 percent unemployment, 47 percent poor health care, 40 percent poor roads, 36 percent corruption, and 32 percent high taxation.

"Despite the challenges, 91 percent of Kenyans said they intend to vote in the 2027 elections — equivalent to about 20 million voters," noted Ndirangu.

The poll further shows Dr Matiang’i enjoying strong support among Generation Z and Millennials, while President Ruto remains dominant in Rift Valley counties. Kalonzo Musyoka leads in Eastern Kenya, and Rigathi Gachagua maintains influence in Central Kenya.

Politician-likeability rankings place Dr Matiang’i among the most liked leaders across all generations, alongside Babu Owino, Uhuru Kenyatta, David Maraga, and Edwin Sifuna.

“This study was independently funded and conducted by Research 8020 as part of our continuous effort to track public opinion and political trends,” Mr Ndirangu said.

He added that the firm will continue releasing similar reports to help stakeholders better understand voter attitudes and priorities ahead of the 2027 General Election.