ODM at a crossroads as broad based gov't commands regional support

A plurality of Kenyans currently feel closest to the broad based government led by President William Ruto, with especially striking support in key regions including North Eastern, where 88 percent of respondents aligned with the arrangement. 

The new Infotrak opinion poll results released on Sunday, underscore shifting political sentiments as parties prepare for the 2027 general election. 

The Infotrak survey captured nationwide views across all eight regions, revealing significant regional variation.

North Eastern with 88% feel closest to the broad based government.

Other regions also showed broad based government support ranging from modest to strong, contributing to an overall 32 percent national alignment with the current arrangement — the highest share among the options included in the poll. 

“By comparison, United Opposition formations drew 22 percent, while the Kenya Moja Alliance registered 17 percent support. Twenty nine per cent of respondents said they did not identify with any of the named political formations,” says the survey. 

The poll, conducted between December 19 and December 20, 2025, involved a representative sample of 1,000 adults from all 47 counties and eight regions, offering a snapshot of political affinities as the national political calendar gains momentum. 

The Infotrak findings have emerged amid ongoing debate within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) over whether the party should continue in the broad based government arrangement with President Ruto’s administration or assert an independent political path ahead of 2027.

Senior party figures serving in government roles have publicly reaffirmed the party’s commitment to the partnership.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has stated that the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga left ODM within the broad based government, and that is where the party will remain through 2027 and beyond. 

Similarly, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, who is the former ODM Chairperson, reiterated on December 28, 2025, that supporting the broad based government and President Ruto’s re election is “a done deal” for the party, urging members opposing this view to cease efforts that might undermine party prospects. 

Conversely, segments of the party’s rank and file have expressed reservations about the arrangement. Some members have argued that ODM risks losing its distinct political identity if it remains closely aligned with the ruling coalition, particularly as preparations for nominations and campaigns intensify nationwide later in 2026.

Much of the internal debate references the strategic direction set by Raila Odinga prior to his death in October 2025.

ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga has emphasised that Raila’s explicit instruction was for the party to stay in the broad based government as a demonstration of unity and national stability, a position echoed at public events following his funeral. 

Those advocating continued alignment argue that the Infotrak poll’s indication of rising public alignment with the broad based government validates the party’s current trajectory.

Critics, however, contend that popular sentiment can shift quickly and that a clearly independent platform may be necessary to galvanise traditional opposition bases and undecided voters heading into 2027.

The Infotrak survey’s regional and national findings provide material for both sides of the ODM debate: while broad based government support appears robust in multiple regions, particularly North Eastern, internal party dynamics reflect differing views on how ODM should interpret those results in planning its political strategy.

As party structures prepare for consultations and nominations throughout 2026, the interplay between public opinion and internal deliberations is likely to shape national election calculations well before ballots are cast.