UDA sweeps all four by‑election seats

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The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) delivered a political statement on Thursday after winning all four elective seats in Kenya’s latest by‑elections-- a result that could reverberate into the 2027 General Election.

UDA secured the Isiolo South parliamentary seat and all three county assembly ward seats in West Kabras (Kakamega County), Muminji (Embu County) and Evurore (Embu County), signalling a strong organisational advantage for the ruling party.

Verified winners, who they are

• Isiolo South MP: Tubi Mohammed Tubi (UDA)--winning against two other candidates, Bina Tubi Mohamed (Jubilee Party) and Isack Abduba Fayo (National Economic Development Party – NEDP).
• West Kabras MCA: Elphas Shalakha (UDA)
• Muminji Ward MCA: Peterson Njeru (UDA)
• Evurore Ward MCA: Duncan Muratia Nyaga (UDA)

In Isiolo South, the contest drew national attention because three candidates vied for the seat--two from major party formations and one independent candidate aligned with a smaller party--but UDA’s Tubi carried a clear majority.

Smooth polls and solid turnout

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) reported that voting took place peacefully, with a notable turnout across all sites.

The commission, which deployed stringent vote‑secrecy measures such as banning phones inside polling stations, said all systems were operating normally.

Security teams were present at every polling station and tallying centre to ensure calm and order throughout the day.

What UDA’s sweep means politically

Analysts say UDA’s clean sweep, both in a parliamentary seat and multiple county assembly seats, highlights the party’s organisational strength and grassroots networks.

With less than two years to go before the 2027 polls, the results could reshape campaigning strategies, opposition unity discussions, and voter targeting for all major parties.

“This is a clear signal that UDA retains significant influence in both local and national contests,” said a political analyst in Nairobi.

“Opposition parties now face urgent questions about coalition building, messaging and grassroots engagement.”

The one‑term narrative returns to the fore

The by‑election outcomes have intensified debate around the so‑called “one‑term presidency” narrative--a political slogan popular among some critics suggesting President William Ruto might not secure a second term.

Although the Kenyan Constitution allows a president two five‑year terms, critics have used “one term” as a symbolic critique of leadership performance.

Supporters of the ruling party argue that the by‑election results--especially UDA’s sweep--challenge that narrative by demonstrating sustained voter support.

Opposition facing tough questions

Opposition parties, including Jubilee, Democratic Party (DP) and others, fielded candidates in the by‑elections but failed to secure any of the four seats.

These results could prompt renewed discussions within opposition ranks about forming stronger alliances or crafting alternative strategies to win over voters.

While by‑elections do not always predict general election outcomes, they offer a barometer of party strength, organisation and voter sentiment.

UDA’s dominant performance, especially in both urban and rural constituencies, could influence how parties shape their campaigns as 2027 approaches.